In light of the seemingly unstoppable rise in the gold price, more and more major banks are raising their forecasts. According to Swiss bank UBS, for example, a scenario is now developing in the gold market in which the yellow metal could rise to USD 4,200 per ounce by the middle of next year.
The analysts cited the weakness of the US dollar, continued strong gold purchases by central banks and rising investments in ETFs backed by physical gold as relevant factors. UBS considers a gold share in the mid-single-digit range in the investment portfolio to be advisable.
Gold as an Important Hedge Due to Low Correlation with Equities
The bankers also point to the low correlation between gold and equities and bonds as a hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation. However, they also warn that risks exist in view of the increased volatility of the precious metal and with regard to possible changes in US monetary policy.
Goldman Sachs also believes that gold will continue to rise – by another 6% by mid-2026. The US major bank sees new demand from important buyer groups as the trigger for the rise to the next record high. Instead of the USD 3,772 per ounce that analysts were expecting until recently, they now expect USD 4,000 per ounce of gold by the middle of next year. Above all, the high, structural demand from central banks and a continued loose monetary policy in the United States are supporting this forecast.
Goldman Sachs divides gold buyers into two large groups: conviction buyers, who would purchase the precious metal continuously and largely regardless of the price. This group, which also includes central banks and
Opportunistic gold buyers, on the other hand, including households in developing countries such as India and China, would only become active in the gold market if, in their opinion, the price is right. According to the experts, this group of buyers puts a floor in the gold price on the way down, but also resistance on the way up.
Gold is Likely to Exceed the USD 4,000 per Ounce Mark
According to analyses by Goldman Sachs, central banks bought less gold in July than in the average month to date in 2025. While the analysts had assumed 80 tons per month for the current year, the actual figure to date has only been 64 tons per month. However, this is in line with the usual seasonal pattern, according to which gold purchases by the official sector decrease in the summer before picking up again from September.
In any case, the US major bank believes that gold is more likely to exceed the forecast mark of USD 4,000 per ounce than remain below it. However, the risk of tactical setbacks is growing due to the increasing long positions in gold (bets on rising prices), as the number of these bets usually returns to an average over time.
