HSBC analysts have raised their forecast for the average gold price in the current year from USD 3,015 to USD 3,215 per ounce. For 2026, an average gold price of USD 3,125 per ounce is now expected, up from USD 2,915 per ounce previously. The bank primarily cites rising risks and government debt as the reasons.
It was further stated that gold typically performs well during times of economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. This had temporarily led the yellow metal to a record high of around USD 3,500 per ounce in spring.
Rising US Debt could further Boost Gold
And just last night, Republicans in the US Senate passed President Donald Trump’s comprehensive tax cut and spending package, which is expected to increase the US national debt by USD 3.3 trillion. (It currently stands at over USD 35 trillion.) At the same time, new US tariffs could come into effect in a few days (on July 9), which would further increase economic uncertainty.
Even if the gold price were to fall somewhat now, according to HSBC, the precious metal has once again reinforced its role as a safe haven and an effective means of portfolio diversification by sustainably breaking through the USD 3,000 per ounce mark.
However, the bankers assume that central bank purchases worldwide are likely to decline if gold continues its rise above the USD 3,300 mark. Conversely, HSBC expects that purchases by the so-called official sector could increase if the precious metal experiences a correction near the USD 3,000 mark.
Regarding the physical demand for gold, the bank expects that a renewed rise above the USD 3,500 per ounce mark could lead to a decline in demand for jewelry, coins, and smaller bars – especially in the largest markets for physical gold in India and China.
