Australia expects that gold will become an even stronger backbone of its export economy in the coming years. According to the September 2025 edition of the “Resources and Energy Quarterly” (DISR), gold export revenues are projected to reach a record USD 60 billion in fiscal year 2025/26 – up from USD 47 billion in 2024/25. For 2026/27, the authority forecasts USD 59 billion. Drivers include persistently high gold prices and increasing exports. The robust contribution from gold is also expected to partially offset weaker revenues in other sectors, such as LNG.
Gold Strengthens Export Balance – despite Headwinds in other Commodities
In detail, the DISR expects the gold sector to grow over the next two years through both price and volume drivers. The authority points to already near-record gold prices and forecasts that these are likely to continue to rise. Concurrently, higher export volumes are anticipated. This combined effect leads to the projected jump to USD 60 billion in fiscal year 2025/26 and a slight normalization to USD 59 billion in 2026/27. For the past year 2024/25, statistics show USD 47 billion – an already high comparative figure that underscores gold’s significance in Australia’s commodity mix.
According to the report, Minister for Resources and Northern Australia, Madeleine King, emphasized the sector’s resilience amidst a weaker global economy. Gold and so-called critical minerals are playing an increasingly important role. For observers, it is clear: alongside traditional heavyweights like iron ore, gold has further solidified its position as a reliable foreign exchange earner – relevant for producers, refiners, and traders alike.
Commodity Mix Overview: Iron Ore Leads, Copper and Lithium in Demand, LNG Weakens
Despite the strong performance of gold, iron ore remains the number one among Australia’s commodity exports. The DISR continues to expect high export volumes to Asia but anticipates declining prices. Demand for copper and critical minerals like lithium is also expected to remain robust – an indication of the ongoing importance of electrification and the technology sector for commodity demand.
Overall, the Ministry forecasts export revenues for the resources and energy sector of USD 369 billion for 2025/26, down from USD 385 billion in the previous year. For 2026/27, a further decline to USD 354 billion is estimated. The report specifically cites LNG prices falling below assumptions as a burdening factor. Against this backdrop, gold plays a stabilizing role: high gold prices and increasing supply volumes mitigate the overall sectoral declines.
For the markets, this mix means: While cyclical commodities like iron ore are more dependent on the economic cycle, gold – traditionally also considered a store of value – currently exhibits its own distinct dynamic. Along the value chain, not only ASX-listed producers but also service providers, equipment suppliers, and logistics companies dependent on the export business are reacting to this.
Fiscal Dimension: Mining Remains Largest Taxpayer in Tax Statistics
The economic impact is also reflected in public finances. According to a transparency report by the Australian Tax Office (ATO), the mining industry paid approximately USD 65 billion in corporate taxes and levies in fiscal year 2023/24 – more than all other industries combined. This marks the third consecutive year, despite lower commodity prices impacting profitability and increasing geopolitical uncertainties.
In Western Australia, the hub of many gold, iron ore, and lithium projects, the Chamber of Minerals and Energy (CME) reported that its member companies contributed over USD 37 billion in corporate tax and Petroleum Resource Rent Tax. This accounts for 38.4% of the corresponding payments collected from large corporations. These figures underscore the macroeconomic importance of the sector – including gold – for employment, investment, and fiscal revenues.
What the Gold Forecast Means for Australia
For Australia, the forecasts point to a phase where gold serves as a reliable export pillar. High gold prices and additional production volumes are likely to help the country cushion economic and price-related losses in other commodity sectors. At the same time, dependence on the global environment persists: exchange rates, demand impulses from Asia, and the course of monetary policy in major economic blocs influence both price levels and investment decisions in the commodity sector.
For the industry’s day-to-day operations, key areas of focus include efficiency, permits, and supply chains. This applies to gold mines as well as processing facilities. Infrastructure and energy issues – from electricity costs to decarbonization targets – remain central determinants for cost structures and competitiveness.
Regardless of short-term fluctuations, the current data sends a clear signal: gold maintains its position as a significant factor in Australia’s export basket. This eases the overall economic balance during a period when parts of the commodity spectrum – such as LNG – are under pressure, while others like copper and lithium continue to be driven by long-term structural trends. For the coming fiscal years, the government therefore expects consistently high contributions from the gold business – a finding that reconfirms the strategic role of the metal in Australia.
