Status: 2025-10-22 by Florian Grummes
After an extraordinary and extremely strong rally over the last ten weeks, the precious metals sector experienced a significant setback yesterday. The gold price recorded its worst trading day since 2013. Silver, platinum and palladium came under even greater pressure.
However, this setback was not very surprising, as the price increases of the last few weeks were enormous. Profit-taking and temporary setbacks are typical side effects of a bull market and should be understood as healthy consolidation.
Now the exciting question is whether the correction will take place this time in a similar way to this spring and the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily over time – i.e. sideways – or whether it will also be reflected more clearly in a price decline.
Gold: Sharp Setback after Double Top
Gold in US dollars, daily chart from October 22, 2025. ©GOLD.DE
On Monday evening, the gold price bounced off a double top at $4,380 and fell by $377 or -8.61% in yesterday’s trading or into tonight to a low of $4,004. Gold thus ended the recent overheating phase with a sharp price decline.
Statistically speaking, the massive price decline of -8.61% within 28 hours was an exceptional event – a so-called sigma move that should only occur every 240,000 trading days in a “normal” world.In fact, there have been about 21 such sharp declines since 1971. So gold is anything but low in volatility.
It is positive that the psychologically important mark of $4,000 has withstood the first test. In the range between $3,950 – $4,000, the lower edge of the long-term upward trend channel also runs, which makes this price range a potential bottoming zone. Should more buyers than sellers be found there at the next test, a larger recovery towards at least $4,200 – $4,250 would likely follow.
However, if the broad support around $4,000 does not hold, the bears could take control of the gold market and target price targets in the region of around $3,750. In the absolute worst-case scenario, we consider a setback to the April high at around $3,500 to be possible.
Silver: Head-and-shoulders Top Indicates Correction Target in the Region of $46.80
The silver price had already marked its high for the move on Friday at $54.48. Since then, it has fallen in two downward waves by a total of $6.95 or -12.76%. A head-and-shoulders top formation has formed on the chart, the calculated minimum price target of which is around $46.80.
Platinum and Palladium under Strong Pressure
The other precious metals were also not spared from the correction. Platinum lost around 16.24% from $1,746 before more buyers entered the market again at $1,462. Palladium was hit even harder: the palladium price fell by 17.75% or almost $300.
The pressure on industrial metals shows that, in addition to technical overextension, macroeconomic factors such as weaker economic prospects also play a role.
Conclusion: Correction as an Opportunity in the Bull Market
The current setback does not signal a trend reversal, but rather an overdue consolidation within an intact upward trend. Such phases are typical in strong bull markets and offer long-term investors the opportunity to expand positions at more attractive prices.
In the short term, it is important whether the support zone of $3,950 to $4,000 can be defended sustainably for the gold price. If this succeeds, prices should stabilize quickly and at least initiate a larger recovery.
As long as the gold price is below $4,380, we only see recovery attempts as intermediate rallies and assume that a healthy correction phase has begun, which could well extend until mid-December.
