According to US investment bank Goldman Sachs, the gold price could rise to $5,000 per ounce if the credibility of the US central bank (Federal Reserve) were to be damaged. Because then, it is said, investors might shift a – albeit small – portion of their capital from US bonds into gold.
The analysts have modeled various scenarios, with the base forecast already predicting a significant increase in the gold price to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs sees a so-called tail-risk scenario of $4,500/ounce and estimates that gold would rise to the $5,000 per ounce mark if only 1% of the private US bond market were to flow into gold!
Gold is Goldman Sachs’ Top Pick in Commodities
The gold price has already gained 35% in value in 2025, making it one of the strongest commodities this year. A large part of this increase is attributable to central bank purchases – in a survey, a majority of central banks stated their intention to continue these purchases – and most recently to the assumption that the Fed will soon begin to lower the US key interest rate.
In addition, the Trump administration has long been trying to gain greater control over the Fed. Besides repeated attempts to discredit Fed Chair Jerome Powell, this also included the dismissal of central bank governor Lisa Cook. She is taking legal action against the government’s move. Numerous observers fear that the credibility of the Federal Reserve could suffer if the US government’s efforts succeed.
With all other parameters remaining constant, Goldman Sachs estimates that if only 1% of private investments from US bonds were to flow into gold as a result, the price for the yellow metal would almost reach $5,000. Therefore, gold remains the most compelling long recommendation in the commodities sector for the influential analysts.
