The gold price remains volatile and initially cannot hold the USD 4,000 per ounce mark – yet Metals Focus analysts are still forecasting new records.
In their latest report, “Precious Metals Investment Focus,” they anticipate a rise in the gold price to up to USD 5,000 (!) by 2026 and an average annual price of approximately USD 4,560 – about 33% above the current year-to-date average. Concurrently, they also see silver on the rise, with a potential high of USD 60 and an expected average of USD 57 per ounce.
According to Metals Focus, several factors will support the gold price in the coming quarters. Firstly, analysts cite ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and its implications for the global economy. In an environment of elevated inflation risks and fragile market sentiment, gold remains in demand as a safe haven, they state.
Furthermore, a further easing of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could lower the opportunity cost of the non-yielding precious metal. Even if interest rate cuts prove less aggressive than some market participants expect, lower real yields would increase gold’s appeal. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and continued official sector purchases (central banks) are expected to contribute significantly to demand, according to analysts. Doubts about the Fed’s independence, as well as growing fiscal burdens in the US, could also dampen the US dollar’s attractiveness – an environment that has historically often provided tailwinds for the gold price.
In the short term, however, the environment remains volatile: At the start of the week, spot gold was last trading just above the USD 3,900 per ounce mark – more than 2% lower on a daily basis and following a significant loss already last week. Metals Focus emphasizes that investor allocations to gold, despite recent inflows, remain below the levels seen after the 2008 financial crisis. From this, analysts derive room for additional capital inflows, particularly from investors with a medium to long-term horizon.
Silver: Upswing with Industrial Backing – but with its Own Cycles
For silver, Metals Focus also paints a positive picture: A rise to USD 60 is possible, driven by investment demand and continued robust industrial use. Despite high prices, analysts expect substitution and material savings (“thrifting”) to take effect only gradually – as many applications require time for technical adjustments.
At the same time, experts anticipate a recovery in bar and coin demand, supported by a buoyant market in India. In the short term, however, the situation remains nervous: Spot silver in European trading falls below the USD 46.00 per ounce mark (–2.31% for the day so far), after the price had already shed around 6% last week.
Regarding the gold-silver price spread (gold-silver ratio), analysts anticipate phases where silver outperforms gold – particularly in the early part of the forecast period. From mid-2026 onwards, however, they expect gold to show stronger performance relative to silver again. Reasons for this could include a waning copper impetus, high silver prices dampening demand, and a flow of inventories from East Asia towards London.
Market Structure: Tight Silver Liquidity and Global Supply Chains
A central theme in the report is the supply chains and physical availability of silver. Over the past twelve months, significant quantities of physical metal have flowed into New York warehouses – triggered, among other things, by political risks and tariff debates in the US. Consequence: Bottlenecks in London, where local inventories temporarily decreased significantly.
This shift coincided with rising investment demand and record imports into India, leading to a pronounced tension between spot and futures prices (CME futures). Concurrently, silver leasing rates temporarily climbed to record levels – an indication of tight physical liquidity. Metals Focus expects the situation to remain tight in the short term, as long as structural deficits and politically induced uncertainties tie up a portion of the inventories in the US.
Conclusion: Regarding gold, analysts link a short-term bumpy trajectory with a scenario of new highs by 2026. In their view, drivers include monetary policy adjustments, sustained safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, and geopolitical risks. For silver, according to Metals Focus, the industrial component remains central – even if higher prices might motivate companies to reduce material usage or explore alternatives. Analysts emphasize the distinction between daily movements and structural trends: while spot prices have recently shown significant fluctuations, the report focuses on the medium-term perspective.
