As of 2025-07-11 by Florian Grummes
The price of gold initially came under significant pressure from mid-June, falling from $3,451 to $3,246. However, the resulting oversold market situation quickly attracted new buyers, leading to a rapid recovery to $3,366. In recent days, there has been another pullback from this level, but it has so far clearly missed the June low of $3,282. Shortly before the weekend, the price of gold is already flirting with the $3,360 mark again.
Overall, the price of gold is trying to make a trend reversal (summer rally) upwards – in line with the seasonal pattern – while the strong start to the year since the end of April is being digested with a sideways consolidation at a high level.
Silver, on the other hand, was able to record a significant breakout above the 13-year resistance at USD 35 four weeks ago and subsequently rose rapidly to USD 37.31.
Due to the temporary weakness in the price of gold, the hoped-for momentum failed to materialize, so that silver also went into a tough sideways consolidation above. It is a positive sign that the prices were able to consistently hold above the important USD 35 mark, thus confirming the breakout.
Shortly before the weekend, the silver bulls are showing their strong side again and driving the price to a new 13-year high of USD 37.82. As a result, the gold/silver ratio continues to fall and is currently at “only” 89.
With the breakout above the long-term resistance at USD 35, silver could in principle now rise to initially USD 40, 45 and approx. USD 50 and thus unleash its catch-up potential.
Spread between Comex and LME copper prices, from July 10, 2025. Source: Alyosha
This recent relative strength of the silver price compared to gold, combined with other technical and fundamental factors, indicates a possible trend reversal in the commodity sector – in favor of industrial metals such as copper.
The historically high gold/copper ratio already came back significantly in the current week, after Donald Trump had caused considerable turbulence on the international commodity markets with the announcement of a 50 percent import tariff on copper.
As a result of this news, the copper price jumped by up to 11% within a few minutes to an all-time high of $5.896 per pound before stabilizing at around $5.70.
The prospect of the tariff triggered a veritable buying frenzy in the USA and fueled fears of supply bottlenecks worldwide, as market participants tried to bring as much copper as possible into the USA before it came into force.
Analysts are talking about a “liquidity event” and expect the tariff to lead to a significant price premium for US copper, which is already around 25% above the LME price. The measure is likely to further tighten global supply, while demand continues to rise due to the energy transition and the AI boom.
However, the high prices may not last if the new tariff impairs the competitiveness of US industry.
Copper/Gold Ratio vs. S&P 500, from July 11, 2025. Source: MacroMicro
At the same time, the persistently high industrial demand from Asia – especially from the electromobility, renewable energy and electronics sectors – is causing structural supply deficits for silver and copper.
In addition, there are macroeconomic factors such as a weaker US dollar, the prospect of interest rate cuts and the search for alternatives to gold, which are encouraging increased capital inflows into other raw materials.
Silver-backed ETFs are already recording significant inflows of funds, and similar trends are also emerging for copper and other industrial metals and rare earths.
Against this backdrop, there is much to suggest that the ongoing outperformance of silver could be an early indicator of a broader commodity boom, in which industrial metals such as copper in particular could herald the next chapter of a cyclical catch-up rally against gold.
Silver in US Dollars – Daily Chart
Silver in US dollars, daily chart from July 11, 2025. Source: Tradingview
Although the price of silver had clearly broken out above USD 35 on June 5, the expected “furious catch-up rally” did not (yet) materialize in the past four weeks.
Instead, the price of silver consolidated stubbornly and confusedly sideways between approx. USD 35.50 and approx. USD 37.
Only since yesterday, Thursday, has new momentum been developing again and the silver prices have been able to break out of their consolidation formation upwards.
As it looks, the silver boom will therefore now unfold with a slight delay. Although the next resistance mark is already waiting at USD 38, the breakout to a new 13-year high has only just begun.
In addition, the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are bent upwards after three and a half weeks of consolidation (Bollinger Band Squeeze), which speaks directly for a sharp upward movement lasting several days or weeks.
Overall, the stable upward trend on the silver market is picking up speed again after a healthy breather.
The next price target is the round mark of USD 40. Above that, there should be a march through to approx. USD 45 and approx. USD 50.
Commodity Boom – Copper Takes Center Stage
While the price of gold has lost some momentum in the last two and a half months, silver and copper are preparing to start their long overdue catch-up rally. Nevertheless, gold naturally remains the decisive pace-setter for the fundamental direction of the precious metal markets.
With the low at USD 3,246 on June 29, the early summer low or turning point should already have been seen. Nevertheless, the gold market likes to cause confusion for a few weeks longer in this seasonally challenging phase and does not fully reveal its cards. However, we assume that the summer rally is not too far away.
Accordingly, the strong performance of silver fits very well into the picture.
In fact, silver could make headlines this summer. Following the completion of the sideways movement, new momentum is currently developing, which should drive silver prices towards USD 40, USD 45 and USD 50 by late summer.
Author: Florian Grummes
Technical Analyst, Precious Metals Expert
www.goldnewsletter.de
