1. Review
In the past three and a half weeks, the weakness in the crypto sector continued, while precious metals marched upwards furiously and dynamically. At least Bitcoin was able to break out of its sideways zone and temporarily recover to USD 97,939. However, a clear trend reversal or at least a completed bottom formation cannot yet be attested, because with the weak start to the week on the stock markets, Bitcoin is also sliding significantly again and is currently trading at around USD 91,000. Ethereum continues to lag behind and has not even been able to overcome the high of December 10 at USD 3,446.
Crypto Marketcap, from January 20, 2026. Source: Tradingview
Overall, there has been a significant market shift since the beginning of autumn, which has accelerated further in recent weeks. While private investors are investing record sums in silver ETFs – over USD 920 million in just 30 days – investors are increasingly turning away from cryptocurrencies. The entire crypto market capitalization has lost around a third since the beginning of October. The upward trend since autumn 2023 has been broken and is now acting as resistance.
And although Bitcoin was able to recover briefly to almost USD 98,000, crypto stocks suffered massive losses again. Coinbase, Circle, Strategy and Robinhood lost some over 10%. The trigger was, among other things, the withdrawal of a long-prepared draft law in the US Senate, after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong had warned of a “bad law.” The new uncertainties regarding US regulation as well as the newly threatened US tariffs are paralyzing the crypto sector.
At the same time, the US economy remains robust with surprisingly low unemployment figures, and TradFi giants such as State Street are advancing further into the blockchain world with new digital asset platforms.
2. Chart Analysis Bitcoin in US Dollars
2.1 Weekly chart: Bottom formation not yet confirmed
Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart from January 20, 2026. Source: Tradingview
Since the sharp price drop from the new all-time high on October 6, 2025 at USD 126,272 to the low on November 21, 2025 at USD 80,537, Bitcoin has only slowly and laboriously gotten back on its feet. Although the Bitcoin prices have recovered by around 21.6% from the low in the last two months, the clear failure at the 38.2% Fibonacci mark at just under USD 98,000 underlines the battered starting position.
The assumption of a completed bottom formation as well as a trend reversal is therefore seductive and dangerous. If Bitcoin does not exceed the 38.2% Fibonacci mark (USD 98,000) in the coming weeks and thus continues to trade below the psychological mark of USD 100,000, the outlook will darken considerably. However, the weekly stochastic is still clearly oversold and is trying to turn the momentum upwards.
In summary, the weekly chart remains bearish. There is still no clear confirmation for a larger recovery or a trend reversal. The lower Bollinger Band (USD 76,593) already releases further space downwards. Within the higher-level upward trend channel, price targets in the range between USD 55,000 and USD 65,000 would also be conceivable this year. However, the support zone between USD 81,000 and USD 75,000 is strong and should initially withstand the next attack by the bears.
2.2 Daily chart: Sideways consolidation
Bitcoin in USD, daily chart from January 20, 2026. Source: Tradingview
On the daily chart, Bitcoin failed six days ago on the 38.2% Fibonacci mark (USD 98,000) as well as on a long-standing trend line in the first attempt and immediately fell back quickly to its 50-day line (USD 90,389). After a certain consolidation around the 50-day line, a second attack on the resistance bastion around USD 98,000 to USD 100,000 would be conceivable. Should this also fail, the crypto winter should worsen.
If, on the other hand, the jump over the round mark of USD 100,000 succeeds, a recovery to the falling 200-day line (USD 105,646) would be logical and realistic. Until then, however, the bulls have a lot of work to do in a difficult macroeconomic environment.
In the short term, the daily stochastic has activated a sell signal with the pullback. However, we suspect that there will not be new lows below USD 80,000 for the time being, but rather a consolidation around the 50-day line in the range of USD 85,000 to USD 95,000 until February.
Overall, the daily chart continues to signal a rather weak market environment. The music is currently clearly not playing in the crypto sector, but in other sectors such as precious metals and raw materials. The most likely scenario in the coming weeks is therefore a continuation of the sideways phase, at the end of which there could be a recovery that either fails again in the range of USD 98,000 to USD 100,000 or could temporarily see the 200-day line again somewhat higher in the range of USD 103,000 to USD 105,000.
3. Sentiment Bitcoin – Neutral sentiment
Crypto Fear & Greed Index from January 17, 2026. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
The “Crypto Fear & Greed Index” recently recovered to 50 out of 100 points. This means that the mood in the sector has calmed down significantly and there is no longer any extreme sentiment. Rather, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals indecision, because the factors taken into account such as volatility, trading volume, Bitcoin dominance, social media sentiment and Google trends currently indicate neither extreme fear nor excessive greed. Historically, a neutral index often correlates with stabilization tendencies, with values below 25 indicating “Extreme Fear” and above 75 indicating “Extreme Greed,” which offers opportunities for purchases in panic phases or warnings of larger corrections.
CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index from January 17, 2026. Source: Coinmarketcap
The “CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index” from CoinMarketCap, which maps the broader crypto market (including top 10 coins and stablecoin dynamics), is currently at 50 out of 100 and thus also reflects a balanced, neutral sentiment in the crypto market. The analyzed indicators such as market volatility, momentum, social media activity, surveys and Bitcoin trends collectively point to a continuation of the consolidation.
In summary, market sentiment has stabilized on a neutral basis without providing a clear direction or statement.
4. Seasonality Bitcoin – Sideways in the 1st quarter
Bitcoin Seasonality from January 20, 2026. Source: Seasonax
The seasonality of Bitcoin shows historically mixed, but tendentially rather positive developments for the first quarter, as January is often considered the strongest month, followed by moderate gains in February and March. In years like 2017, 2021 or 2024, BTC achieved significant returns in Q1 – for example, the price doubled in 2021 from around USD 29,000 to USD 58,600 – while phases like 2018 or 2022 brought corrections after bull markets. Statistically, the average Q1 performance since 2010 is approx. +20 to +30% in upward phases, influenced by halving cycles, tax events and new capital inflows, with volatility remaining high. However, the green light is only given again in the statistical average from the beginning/middle of April!
In conclusion, the seasonal component in the first quarter historically delivers mixed, but tendentially slightly positive results, with the next sustainable upward movement statistically expected from the beginning/middle of April.
5. Bitcoin against Gold (Bitcoin/Gold Ratio)
Bitcoin/Gold Ratio, weekly chart from January 20, 2026. Source: Tradingview
At prices of around USD 90,820 for one Bitcoin and approx. USD 4,725 for one troy ounce of gold, you currently have to pay around 19.22 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. Conversely, one troy ounce of gold currently costs approx. 0.052 Bitcoin. This means that Bitcoin was only able to stabilize slightly against the strong gold price in the last few weeks! The trend continues to be clearly in favor of gold.
The Bitcoin/Gold ratio is primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rate decisions by central banks, global liquidity and inflation, as low interest rates favor risky assets such as Bitcoin, while gold serves as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. Bitcoin-specific drivers such as ETF inflows, halving events, regulatory progress and political support – for example, by the Trump administration – reinforce this by boosting institutional demand and allowing BTC to outperform gold. In addition, there is Bitcoin’s high volatility compared to gold’s stability as well as changing correlations to stock markets, supplemented by geopolitical tensions and demand from emerging markets, which support gold.
At 19.22 to 1, the Bitcoin/Gold ratio indicates a relative undervaluation of Bitcoin compared to the precious metal when compared to the last five years. This key figure, which measures the purchasing power of Bitcoin in gold, has fallen significantly from its highs of around 41:1 since December 2024, influenced by the strong gold rally as well as the hard correction in Bitcoin. Historically, a low ratio favors a future outperformance of Bitcoin.
Technically, however, there is absolutely no trend reversal for Bitcoin against gold to be seen so far. On the contrary, the shoulder-head-shoulder formation suggests price targets of approx. 12:1. However, the weekly stochastic is embedded bearishly but also strongly oversold, so that a recovery in favor of Bitcoin in the coming one to five months would not actually be a surprise.
In summary, the Bitcoin/Gold ratio is strongly oversold on the weekly chart, while a not very convincing recovery has already ended on the daily chart. In order to end the sharp downward trend since mid-August, the Bitcoin/Gold ratio needs to rise to values above 22. Then the ratio could recover towards 25 to 26. So far, there is no sign of this and we have to assume that the ratio will fall to approx. 12:1 or lower over the course of the year.
6. Global risk aversion: Gold is booming, Bitcoin is collapsing
On Monday morning, the global financial markets were hit by a new wave of risk aversion. The trigger for this were two shocks: new tariff threats from Washington and political uncertainties in Japan. While headlines reported on a possible early election date and a planned tax cut, yields on Japanese government bonds shot up – the 30-year bond reached its highest level since its introduction at 3.58%. At the same time, the stock and crypto markets collapsed, while investors fled to the safe haven of precious metals. Gold has now risen to a new record high of USD 4,730 and silver has risen to just over USD 95.50, while Bitcoin has fallen back to USD 90,600.
These drastic movements reflect a profound reweighting of global capital flows. In view of the combination of monetary policy uncertainty in Japan, rising national debt and new trade policy tensions under US President Trump, market participants are increasingly seeking protection in low-risk investments. The interplay of rising bond yields and exploding gold prices signals a clear flight from risk – a warning signal for a possible phase of increased market volatility with temporarily shrinking liquidity.
New Fed liquidity meets fragile markets
All roads lead to inflation
However, the Federal Reserve is expected to pump approx. USD 55.3 billion directly into the markets from Tuesday – a QE-like program that could boost risky assets such as stocks and crypto. At the same time, US debt now amounts to more than USD 38 trillion and causes annual interest costs of USD 1.17 trillion. This puts the central bank in a deadlock: either inflation or insolvency. This twin-deficit syndrome, in which budget deficits lead to trade deficits, destabilizes the dollar balance and drives investors into alternative assets. From this point of view, gold and Bitcoin act as monetary life insurance – but while gold reacts to global purchases with strong price increases, Bitcoin depends on private risk appetite as well as network security and is in a downward trend.
Gold is detaching itself from real interest rates
Gold vs. and real US interest rates, from January 16, 2026. Source: GLI
Since the beginning of the great gold rush at the end of February 2024, gold prices have decoupled from real interest rates and completed a macrohistorical turning point! Central banks, especially from the BRICS states, are now hoarding more gold than US Treasuries for the first time in 30 years. This is not only a massive vote of no confidence in US fiscal policy, but also a clear signal for a structural de-dollarization cycle. Geopolitical hedging and physical scarcity make gold a strategic asset that is both supranational and censorship-resistant. In addition, gold has already performed thousands of years of “Proof of Work,” to stay in Bitcoin jargon.
Physical fortress vs. speculative chain
Both Bitcoin and gold live from their status as “Outside Money” – assets beyond state liability. The difference: gold exists one hundred percent outside the digital infrastructure, while Bitcoin is completely dependent on it. In a world of increasing cybersecurity risks and AI-powered attack vectors, gold without third-party risk is gaining relative attractiveness because it cannot be hacked. Bitcoin remains volatile instead, because its security budget is directly linked to speculation.
Bitcoin in a dilemma
Technically, Bitcoin is therefore in a structural dilemma. With each halving, the block subsidy – and thus the security expenditure of the network – is halved. Without exponential price increases or permanently high transaction fees, the incentive model for miners collapses. This “security recession” is not a marginal problem, but economically inevitable if price or usage volume stagnate. This means: Economically, Bitcoin must either inflate or risk being attacked.
Gold’s silent renaissance
Nevertheless, Bitcoin and crypto have been much more noticeable in the media due to the dramatic price gains in recent years. Bitcoin is still considered a “sure-fire” bet. At the same time, an epochal shift back to gold took place in the shadows. Gold has been transformed from a dead “relic” back into a geopolitical tool, the silent backbone of a multipolar financial system. Bitcoin could conceptually take on the same role, but it lacks regulatory acceptance and physical anchoring.
Bitcoin & the new security paradox
The recent Bitcoin theft of USD 282 million is not just an isolated case, but a macroeconomic wake-up call. The event shows that technological security (hardware wallets, multi-sig, cold storage) is only as strong as the human factor. Social engineering, for example, is increasingly undermining the security architecture of the entire crypto market. In an environment in which a single mistake can destroy millions, trust shifts from technology to psychology – a macroeconomically greatly underestimated factor.
Privacy Coins and the Shadow-Liquidity-Dilemma
The fact that the hacker converted the entire proceeds into Monero via dozens of instant-swap services shows a growing phenomenon: privacy assets as the endpoint of illegal liquidity. Monero’s short-term price increase of 80% was not a market cycle, but a liquidity impulse from criminal capital. This episode illustrates that privacy coins today function as a “digital shadow banking system” – outside of AML regimes, but within an increasingly digitized global financial system.
Trust as the ultimate and new scarcity
The case reveals the true bottleneck of the crypto ecosystem: trust as a humanly rare resource! While Bitcoin is mathematically scarce and gold is physically scarce, trust remains rare and susceptible to social engineering. Hardware can be secured, but it does not protect against human failure. Paradoxically, this distrust drives the demand for decentralized assets: the more obvious mistakes happen, the more tempting error-free systems seem!
Bitcoin’s macroeconomic paradox
Macroeconomically, Bitcoin is therefore in a paradoxical position. On the one hand, it is increasingly seen as a strategic inflation hedge by institutional portfolios, on the other hand, it remains one of the most systemically vulnerable assets. The regulatory fronts – from MiCA to US Stablecoin Bills – are also slowing down the market because the profitability and control of the banks are directly threatened. Stablecoins are the linchpin here: they interfere with the foundation of the modern banking system by potentially making interest rates marketable for savers.
Bank lobby and interest rate differential war
However, the blockade of the US crypto law illustrates the fundamental shift in power. Banks earn from the interest rate differential: they pay 0.1%, while they park their deposits with the Fed for up to 4%. Stablecoins like USDT threaten this model. The result is an open lobbying war for control over private money creation in the digital age. This dynamic is economically far more significant than the legal question “SEC or CFTC,” because US banks fear a potential outflow of approx. USD 6 trillion in deposits through stablecoin yields such as Coinbase’s 3.5% on USDC. The CLARITY Act dispute (Coinbase vs. White House) is therefore escalating. Bank of America is already warning of a credit collapse. Venezuela, on the other hand, has already traded around 80% of its oil via USDT!
Tether as a private central bank
In particular, stablecoins are used for trading infrastructure and not for everyday payments. Tether Holdings Limited, based in the British Virgin Islands, is the parent company behind the world’s largest stablecoin USDT and also controls the crypto exchange Bitfinex. The company manages over USD 181 billion in reserves, including massive US Treasury bond positions, approximately 116 tons of gold and over 100,000 Bitcoins. With less than 100 employees, Tether generates approximately USD 10 billion in annual profit primarily through interest income, but also with diversification into sectors such as agriculture and mining. The stablecoin giant dollarizes the development area, moves USD 47 trillion annually via professional traders and exchanges approximately 15% of its profits into Bitcoin every quarter. Despite the US ban, Tether is creating two dollar worlds via the GENIUS Act: regulated vs. offshore.
Bitcoin in fundamental crisis
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has zero exposure to blockchain growth such as stablecoins, DeFi or RWA tokenization – the “Fat Protocol” thesis is therefore dead. The USD 282 million hack via Trezor social engineering has once again highlighted the security gaps, while the halvings reduce miner subsidies and Bitcoin governance has become oligarchical.
Bitcoin’s governance structure has become caught in a kind of “Centralized Anarchy”: formally decentralized, practically oligarchical. A few core developers control GitHub access and thus the development path. This centralization prevents adjustments that are economically necessary but politically undesirable. In macroeconomic terminology, Bitcoin suffers from institutional inertia – a governance deficit that is similar to that of traditional states.
The promise that transaction fees will bear the network security in the long term also contradicts economic reality. In a competitive market, users simply migrate if fees are high. On-chain capacity limits make Bitcoin inherently deflationary in its functionality – the more expensive the security, the lower the benefit. This slows down adoption and keeps institutional users away. In summary, Bitcoin is moving on a curve of diminishing marginal utility with increasing opportunity costs.
Conclusion: Two worlds, one narrative
In macroeconomic terms, gold and Bitcoin are no longer in competition, but in a kind of sequence. Gold leads, Bitcoin follows. While states hedge themselves physically, individuals look for digital alternatives. But the market remains merciless: mathematical scarcity does not replace economic trust. If Bitcoin does not solve its governance and security problems, gold will once again be the “risk-free asset” of the 21st century – and Bitcoin a brilliant but self-destructive experiment.
7. Conclusion: Bitcoin – Gold rally vs. crypto winter
Since the crash from USD 126,272 to USD 80,537, Bitcoin has been trying to form a bottom and reverse the trend. However, failure at the 38.2% Fibonacci mark around USD 98,000 does not bode well for the coming months. The daily chart initially suggests a consolidation around the 50-day line. The chance for another increase in the direction of approximately USD 98,000 to USD 100,000 is still there. In the medium term, however, the Bitcoin/Gold ratio suggests a further decline in Bitcoin towards approximately USD 60,000.
