According to VanEck, the surge in gold prices is increasingly changing the perception of the mining sector. While gold continues to trade near its record highs of more than $5,000 per ounce, many producers are currently generating exceptionally high margins and free cash flow, in the view of Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager for Gold and Precious Metals at VanEck. With industry-wide total costs remaining below $2,000 per ounce, she sees gold mining stocks positioned to once again outperform the metal itself in 2026.
Central to this assessment is not solely the question of whether the gold price will rise further from here. From VanEck’s perspective, the market’s changed attitude is already crucial. If investors begin to view current price levels not as a short-term exaggeration but as a new normal, it alters the perspective on valuation metrics in the sector. It is precisely from this that Casanova derives her constructive stance on gold mining stocks.
Gold Mining Stocks Benefit from High Margins and Free Cash Flow
According to VanEck, the combination of balance sheet quality, cost structure, and operational profitability particularly speaks for the sector. Casanova argues that producers’ recent figures indicate robust profitability – even if the gold price does not rise further. What is crucial for her is that margins are at or near record levels, and companies are simultaneously generating strong free cash flows.
This very point distinguishes the current cycle from previous phases. In the past, strong gold price movements were often linked to more aggressive expansion plans. However, Casanova describes the industry this time as cash-generative and disciplined. This brings the operational leverage of producers to the forefront: if the gold price remains high and costs are significantly lower, it creates scope for cash flow and capital allocation, which can be reflected in the valuations of gold mining stocks.
VanEck therefore sees a sustainable foundation for the sector even if the gold price rally does not accelerate further for now. Casanova points out that the market environment regularly produces new triggers for a higher gold price. More importantly, however, is the growing conviction among many market participants that current price levels do not merely represent a temporary peak.
VanEck Sees Changed Valuation of Gold Price as Key Factor
From this altered perspective, a central valuation mechanism emerges for VanEck. If investors expect a higher gold price level in the long term, gradually higher long-term gold price assumptions will be incorporated into the valuation of mining stocks. Casanova sees this as an important driver for gold mining stocks in 2026. Not only the spot price, but the durability of high margins and cash flows is decisive.
VanEck does not ignore the cost side. In an environment with a stagnant gold price, margin pressure would primarily arise if production costs continue to increase. For 2026, companies have so far projected All-in Sustaining Costs that are approximately 10 to 12% higher compared to 2025. Casanova considers this development to be the key factor that could reduce margins in an unchanged price environment.
At the same time, she points out that the gold price has already gained more than 20% this year. Against this backdrop, the gap between the selling price and the cost base remains considerable. As long as the industry average for AISC remains below $2,000 per ounce, VanEck considers the sector’s resilience to be high. From this perspective, for gold mining stocks, this means that even with more cautious assumptions, a financially sound foundation is in place.
Gold Mining Stocks Show More Discipline Than in Previous Cycles, According to VanEck
Another building block of the positive assessment comes from discussions with companies. At the BMO Global Metals and Mining Conference in February, VanEck held meetings with more than 40 companies from the gold sector, including producers, developers, and royalty and streaming companies. According to Casanova, these discussions confirmed the picture of an industry that is not in an uncontrolled expansion mode but focuses on discipline and returns.
From her perspective, it is striking that companies continue to work with conservative gold price assumptions of around $2,000 per ounce for reserves. This indicates that the industry is not overly aggressive in its planning despite significantly higher market prices. While higher gold prices could support reserve growth in the long term because more ounces become economic, the calculation basis remains conservative. For VanEck, this is an indication that gold mining stocks are accompanied not by exaggerated expectations, but by rather cautious operational management.
Casanova describes the overall impression from the discussions as constructive and confident. Management teams are focusing more on capital returns, investing more selectively in high-quality growth, and advancing projects with greater technical diligence and lower risk. From her perspective, this gives the sector a different profile than in previous precious metals cycles.
VanEck Expects Further Potential in Gold Mining Stocks in 2026
For 2026, VanEck derives a clear fundamental thesis: gold mining stocks currently possess both financial strength and operational leverage. If the gold price remains at its current level or rises further, the sector could use this starting position to once again outperform gold itself. A look at February shows that such movements were already visible: The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index rose by 21.01% that month.
This consolidates the picture of a sector supported by several factors simultaneously: high gold prices, record-high margins, solid balance sheets, conservative reserve assumptions, and a more restrained approach to capital than in previous boom phases. It is precisely this combination that VanEck currently considers sustainable for gold mining stocks.
Whether the gold price continues its upward trend remains relevant for the short-term market direction. For Casanova, however, the broader statement is that the sector itself could now be significantly more stable, even with a sideways-moving gold price, than many investors might have assumed in previous years. From this perspective, it is less about spectacular individual impulses and more about the combination of consistently high margins and disciplined corporate management that could support gold mining stocks in 2026.
